I'm not ashamed to admit I was a remain supporter. I stood there on the day of the referendum handing out leaflets for remain, I phone banked for remain and I encouraged m friends to vote remain. I believed then and I still believe now that Britain was better off in Europe.
That being said I knew remain had lost when I saw the Newcastle result at the very beginning of the night.
I sat through each and very result (getting slowly more drunk as each result rolled in) seeing the pattern continue that saw remain fall steadily more behind until mathematically there was no chance of victory even if 100% of the remaining votes were for remain.
It was, to me, a sad night but one which could have been avoided. In fact I can point to the very moment that Remain lost the EU referendum. It was the day that George Osborne stood up with Alister Darling and threatened the nation with a punishment budget if the public did not vote their way.
If there's one thing I know about the British public it's that they don't like being threatened.
Meanwhile the leave campaign were quietly plodding along with a campaign designed to be an ear-work "£350-million a day" sat in the backdrop of everybody's minds being repeated by the media, in pubs and in the work place. People who otherwise never thought about voting (let alone cared about the EU) were incensed by the pouring of money to the EU.
What made this line so effective and George Osborne's punishment budget so devastating?
To quote the old Clinton campaign adage: it's the economy stupid!
We've known for many years that electoral campaigns are won or lost on the economy. People will vote for anyone and everyone provided they believe that they will put more money in their pocket or their public services than the other team will.
To their lasting credit it was the leave campaign which painted a brighter economic picture... even if it was admitted to be false literally the day after the vote. Whilst the remain campaign had painted a truly bleak financial image of a world in ruins if we failed to vote IN.
Now I was a Remainer, but I was no demagogue. I did the research and mathematics for myself and I knew that leaving the EU did carry risks, but ti also carried potential rewards and staying in the EU carried risks but had potential rewards as well. The only main differences I could see were short-term long-term differences with me believing that short-term EU membership MIGHT be better then voting to leave and long-term leaving MIGHT have brought benefits to our economy.
Key word there being might.
This was an unprecedented situation after all. No one had yet left the EU so we have no real idea what shape the article 50 deal will take or what long or short term impact it will have on our economy.
All I do know is that the lesson to be earned from the remain campaign is one that we Conservatives need to learn before the next General Election.
Our London Campaign this year was full of fear and not focused on the economic issues impacting everyday Londoners. Frankly it was sloppy and relied so much on Labour screwing up as opposed to us winning. We were moving from pillar to post to paint Sadiq Khan as a dangerous extremist and all the while he was walking around London winning the economic argument and ensuring that our campaign looked racist and angry by comparison.
I applaud the work all of our activists put into the campaign but the people at the top let us all down and should really think hard about how we intend to win in 2020, because right now I suspect they believe it will be an easy ride against Corbyn...
...I heard that about Sadiq Khan.
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