Post-EU Referendum and lessons to be learned.

I'm not ashamed to admit I was a remain supporter. I stood there on the day of the referendum handing out leaflets for remain, I phone banked for remain and I encouraged m friends to vote remain. I believed then and I still believe now that Britain was better off in Europe.

That being said I knew remain had lost when I saw the Newcastle result at the very beginning of the night.

I sat through each and very result (getting slowly more drunk as each result rolled in) seeing the pattern continue that saw remain fall steadily more behind until mathematically there was no chance of victory even if 100% of the remaining votes were for remain.

It was, to me, a sad night but one which could have been avoided. In fact I can point to the very moment that Remain lost the EU referendum. It was the day that George Osborne stood up with Alister Darling and threatened the nation with a punishment budget if the public did not vote their way.

If there's one thing I know about the British public it's that they don't like being threatened.

Meanwhile the leave campaign were quietly plodding along with a campaign designed to be an ear-work "£350-million a day" sat in the backdrop of everybody's minds being repeated by the media, in pubs and in the work place. People who otherwise never thought about voting (let alone cared about the EU) were incensed by the pouring of money to the EU.

What made this line so effective and George Osborne's punishment budget so devastating?

To quote the old Clinton campaign adage: it's the economy stupid!

We've known for many years that electoral campaigns are won or lost on the economy. People will vote for anyone and everyone provided they believe that they will put more money in their pocket or their public services than the other team will.

To their lasting credit it was the leave campaign which painted a brighter economic picture... even if it was admitted to be false literally the day after the vote.  Whilst the remain campaign had painted a truly bleak financial image of a world in ruins if we failed to vote IN.

Now I was a Remainer, but I was no demagogue. I did the research and mathematics for myself and I knew that leaving the EU did carry risks, but ti also carried potential rewards and staying in the EU carried risks but had potential rewards as well. The only main differences I could see were short-term long-term differences with me believing that short-term EU membership MIGHT be better then voting to leave and long-term leaving MIGHT have brought benefits to our economy.

Key word there being might.

This was an unprecedented situation after all. No one had yet left the EU so we have no real idea what shape the article 50 deal will take or what long or short term impact it will have on our economy.

All I do know is that the lesson to be earned from the remain campaign is one that we Conservatives need to learn before the next General Election.

Our London Campaign this year was full of fear and not focused on the economic issues impacting everyday Londoners. Frankly it was sloppy and relied so much on Labour screwing up as opposed to us winning. We were moving from pillar to post to paint Sadiq Khan as a dangerous extremist and all the while he was walking around London winning the economic argument and ensuring that our campaign looked racist and angry by comparison.

I applaud the work all of our activists put into the campaign but the people at the top let us all down and should really think hard about how we intend to win in 2020, because right now I suspect they believe it will be an easy ride against Corbyn...

...I heard that about Sadiq Khan.

Olympic Success & the Problem of Claiming Credit

Last night I was on the tube home reading a copy of the Evening Standard. I saw articles about the Olympics and how it was absolutely great that the United Kingdom is because of the way that our athletes beat many other athletes around the world. Further, I saw articles trying to link Olympic Success to Brexit as if those two concepts were somehow related.

I also recall a BBC article with a blast from the past saying that maybe John Major deserves credit for our Olympic Success as he created the Lottery.

This morning I woke up to a facebook poll telling me that Sadiq Khan is claiming credit for the Night Tube, saying it was him and not Boris that delivered a 24-hour tube service for London. He argued that because he was Mayor when it happened it makes it his victory, where as other people have argued that Boris and his team put in the leg work therefore it belongs to them.

These are just two examples of politicians trying to claim credit and I tell you now this is one of the reasons that less than 35% of young people even bother voting.

When did politics become about claiming credit as opposed to helping people? when did it become about one upping the other side as opposed to presenting your policies and explaining why they are beneficial?

Some would say it was the Blair era. Or, more precisely, the Post-Truth era that he heralded where by repeating a lie often enough it essentially becomes the truth in the eyes of the public. By applying that politicians can take credit for anything provided the media is on their side. The problem is that as young people are becoming more skeptical of the 'main stream media' they are also becoming more and more disengaged with what politicians are actually doing and fighting over credit, or trying to take credit where none exists, or even trying to connect two unrelated events is not a helpful way to restore their confidence in politicians.

It has been more then 5 elections now since the Conservative party won among first time voters. If we continue with that trend then pretty soon our core vote is going to shrink rapidly as on one end we have less voters coming in while on the other - and I do hate being blunt here - the elderly voters who have swung us elections are dying off.

And why are these young people so reticent to come to us when we have put more money into their future than any other Government? why don't they trust us with their vote when we have reduced unemployment to it's lowest levels in decades? why despite more young people agreeing with our positions on welfare do they not feel they can give us their support?

Because they see us in the press claiming credit or using rhetoric rather than being straight with them.

All young people want is for politicians to actually speak to them, not about them. They want people who will represent them fairly. That can be Conservatives but the emphasis we have placed on Post-Truth politics won't work with them.

It's time we got back to being the honest party.

Truth be told:

The Olympic Success is wonderful, but nothing to do with Government really. Yes we helped fund them but it was the hard work of our athletes and their trainers that brought in the medals.

Brexit has nothing to do with the Olympics and pretending it does is both disingenuous and wrong.

Boris did start off the Night Tube Project, but if he had finished it before leaving office I would be able to get the night tube home on Saturday's. I can't. but in a few months I will be able to. Thanks to Sadiq Khan.

There.

Three easy truths that people can respect.

Let's start telling it more often and see how much more respect we receive from the public, and specifically young people, as a result.

Return of the Tory Network

Welcome back friends to the Tory Network.

It's been 8 months since we went dark and in that time we've had a very eventful political year.

We lost in London but won in Scotland.

We had the EU referendum, the single most important vote many people in this nation will ever have taken part in.

We said goodbye to the man who brought us back to power and hello to the UK's second female Prime Minister.

We saw the rise and fall and now rise again of Boris Johnson

And finally we are standing witness to the largest act of self immolation that any political party has ever undergone in the form of this year Labour Leadership elections.

Amidst this backdrop of politicking and intrigue I thought I would start the renewed Tory Network off with a very brief discussion on an easy topic, nothing morally ambiguous or contentious, so after some deliberation and thought I decided to tackle the most innocent issue of...

Assisted Suicide.

 Some of us may have seen that Lord Rix, a noted charity campaigner and activist, passed away recently. In his life Lord Rix had actually campaigned AGAINST assisted suicide but as his body failed him and the years took an ever heavier toll his opinion shifted to the point that in the House of Lord's he proclaimed:

"Only with a legal euthanasia Bill on the statute books will the many people who find themselves in the same situation as me be able to slip away peacefully in their sleep instead of dreading the night."

Now as many people will be aware I studied Law at University. This gives me a very predefined path when it comes to analysing an issue. In effect I start by looking for precedent but the simple truth is that in this particular case I don't feel looking for precedent is appropriate. Assisted suicide is what I believe is a single morality issue. An issue where the desires of the many should not in any way impact the law. That is to say it should entirely be an individuals decision as to when they die and it really shouldn't matter what other people have to say on the issue.

My thoughts here are not supported by law. Assisted suicide is a crime and the European Court of Human Rights has found that whilst we definitely have a right to life we have no corresponding right to die.

But we should and I believe Tories should support it.

As Tories our inclination should always be towards a state which does not limit the rights of the individual. We have a long and proud history of protecting the public and defending liberty, so I firmly believe that we should deliver a fair framework which achieves both aims.

After all, I don't think we should have Futurama style suicide booths, it should be a difficult decision to make if you choose to die. Supported by medical evidence and thoroughly check to ensure it your decision alone.

But it should be a decision available to us.

Reader Response Wednesday

We've had a number of great questions in since the last time we did one of these. Thanks to everyone who has sent one in, sorry I'm taking a few days to reply but things have been a bit busy lately. Keep on sending things in and I promise I'll get back to you ASAP.

Here are two of the best:

Our first question comes from Sue. She wanted to know my thoughts on who our next leader is going to be. Well I'm sorry to disappoint but I really don't know what to think. There are a lot of people I would like to see in the role of course, we do afterall have many capable MPs, and I have a lot of respect for many of the current cabinet. It's important to note though that when David Cameron became leader he wasn't a front runner and had only been an MP for a short while. We won't pick our leader based on entitlement, but on ability with the most capable candidate - whoever that might be! - being the one to get my vote.

Second we have David who wanted to know if my thoughts on the EU have changed lately, particularly after the report by MPs that the Prime Minister's proposals will need treaty change. In my opinion though that doesn't matter. I see the EU as the future for the UK. Yes it needs reform, yes it must better service our needs but in the long run we are better off in and my opinion on that won't  change simply because the task got harder.

The Night is Dark and Full of Terrors

In the Game of Thrones universe many people would claim the Starks of Winterfell are the 'good' guys. They act with honour and purpose so it's easy to see them in that light. Likewise those same people would say the Lannisters of Casterly Rock are the villains of the piece as they do things which are not always honourable or moral - politics is similar. We in the Tory party are branded as heartless villains because we pursue policies judged by our enemies to be harsh and without morality. It is important to remember though that while Tywin Lannister was harsh and Cersei a bit mad the Lannisters are not all that way. Tyrion the Imp may be a drunken whore monger but he is perhaps the only character in the series that puts the good of the nation and the people ahead of his own personal grudges and vendettas. Even Jamie Lannister in later seasons becomes a more likable figure after the revelation that he only earned his kingslayer name after the mad king had ordered him to burn the city of Kings Landing to the ground.

My point is that perception matters. We allow ourselves to be painted as heartless and to an extent we embrace that reputation despite the facts painting a rather different picture. After all under a Tory administration unemployment has plummeted to it's lowest levels in years, more young people than ever before are going to university and by the end of this parliament Britain will be living within her means - ensuring future generations will not be paying off debts accrued not by their fathers but their grandfathers and great grandfathers etc.

Yes we've made mistakes, tax credit reform being one of them, and we will probably make a few more before the job is done but we must never lose sight of the good we are doing nor should we ever accept the narrative that we are in some way less moral than our opponents. We must instead be confident that our actions are building a better future free from the tyranny of statism and socialism and that because of us Britain can stand tall again.

Campaigning Tips from a Campaign Manager.

As some of you may have heard I will be starting my new job on Monday as a Campaign Manager for the Conservative Party. With this in mind I thought it might be a good idea to talk briefly about best practice for campaign days in the run up to the elections in May. I don't think everyone needs to know these things (or even that they are particularly advanced techniques) but it's always helpful to have a run down on the basics:

1. Joined up Campaigning. Nothing irritates me more than seeing resources being wasted and by failing to connect campaign days with one another that is precisely what we do. Everything should connect. If you leaflet an area one week, you should canvass it the next. While you're out and about you should take photos and put them up on facebook and twitter so the public can see you engaging with them. Little things like this make a huge difference.

2. Good use of elected officials. MPs, Assembly Members and Councillors are some of the best resources we have for elections. They are well known and well liked with a support base of their own to draw upon. If they aren't actively involved in campaigning for candidates i'm sad to say we are missing a trick. Do your association's councillors put out regular ward newsletters where they can sneak in a picture of a candidate shaking their hand? do they engage with local clubs and organisations regularly and can they introduce you to the right people at them? heck are they regulars at their local pub and well liked by the other patrons? by showing their faces and being willing to show their support, our candidates gain powerful local advocates at zero cost and potentially get extra chances to interact with potential voters outside of the doorstep and telephone.

3. Speaking of the Phone... we all dread that call at 8pm in the evening. Something good is just coming on telly, we've got a nice cuppa in our hands and then RING RING RING RING. The person on the other end might be wonderful and they might have something to say that a voter wants to hear but at that time of the night they aren't listening anymore. Telecanvassing is a wonderful tool if used properly but try to avoid getting stuck into the many mistakes which can be made. Keep calling to pre 7:30pm and always try to leave the person you've spoken to feeling like their time was precious to you and you are grateful they gave you a few minutes of it (I know its hard but well worth it in the end).

4. Multi-purpose. It's a sad fact that in campaigning money talks, but what if you don't have much of it? well that means you need to get clever. If you are going to put out a A4 leaflet make it single sided with a poster on the back and a tag line saying 'if you believe in X please put our poster in your window' that way you get maximum value for your money. The same goes with calling cards. You've rocked up on a door and there's no answer? great leave a dual-purpose calling card which has some basic information on side and on the other you write a time and date for when you'll be back in the area and ask them to leave it in their window if they would like to talk to someone from the campaign. Simple and effective.

5. Social Media. I've already touched on this at the beginning but these days facebook and twitter are a must. They are not however the only forms of social media available to candidates nor are they the most effective. Youtube offers a wonderful opportunity for targeted video advertisement and in the same way that radio and television were once thought to be the best means of reaching the public (fireside chats etc) this new social media connects to growing demographics of the computer literate. This includes a growing proportion of the over 50s and, as you can imagine, almost all young people. There are plenty of avenues open if candidates and agents are willing to look, including blogs (which Guy Opperman MP is well known for using to convey his thoughts to the public)

And finally.

6. Have Fun. Campaigning is hard. It is a brutal slogging match between party machines all going after the same prizes. Most of our warriors are volunteers and we need to ensure that they are not only motivated in one session but are motivated to come back again and again. In the past I always tried to end campaign days in a pub or a coffee shop. Somewhere where we could sit and unwind, have a laugh and a joke (maybe some hot food) and enjoy the company of our fellow activists. This step matters and if you take nothing away from this list but this than you'll at least be doing ok.

New Years Day.

Well. I survived. The pain im feeling from everything I drank last night might take me later on but for now I'm still going. Today's post is not a very long one, nor a particularly detailed one. It's simply to say thank you in advance to all Tories who read this blog and come out campaigning to help us win this years elections in London, Wales, Scotland and councils across the UK. Every volunteer is an extra few dozen houses where we can spread our message of 'striving not skiving' and highlight our record as the party of fiscal responsibility.