Hi guys. First things
first, thank you to everyone who asked if I was ok yesterday. Truth
be told I was again out having a few beers on Saturday night (who
could have guessed a tory would like drinking) so I didn't post
anything on Sunday. This blog will predominantly be published Monday
to Saturday with mini-blogs about any topics that come up as and
when. Sunday will be reserved for me (and my guest bloggers) to
recover from any hangovers etc.
Second I want to take just a moment to express my respect for Grant Shapps who resigned from his government position at the weekend over the current issues in the party (which I will not discuss here but a blog post on them can be found here). I had the honour of meeting Mr. Shapps at conference this year and he was a genuinely decent guy despite this he has done the right thing by resigning given that he was the one who made the decision to endorse Road Trip. As I said I both like and respect Mr. Shapps (we were both of a similar mind in regards the... unique range of food available at conference this year and expressed a similar desire for normal food like a simple ham and cheese sandwich) and I do hope he returns to front bench politics in a timely fashion once this issue has been properly investigated.
NOW.
What you've all been waiting for: My Views on the EU.
I've done two mini-blogs on this issue. A list of three reasons to stay in the EU, followed by a list of three reasons to leave the EU. Both of these lists were presented without comment because I did not want to 'tease' my position in regards Europe until I had had a proper chance to sit and write about why I am strongly in favour of remaining in the European Union*
The European Union is a mess. It is full of legal loop holes and is very difficult to explain in simple terms which everybody can understand. However it is also one of the largest economies in the world and it also happens to be just a few dozen miles off the south east coast of Britain. We cannot ignore it, we cannot dictate terms to it and we cannot expect they will give us preferential treatment if we leave the EU. This was acknowledged by the Open Europe Report I cited on friday in the three reasons to leave mini-blog when they stated very clearly that:
"UK GDP could be 2.2% lower in 2030 if Britain leaves the EU and fails to strike a deal with the EU or reverts into protectionism. In a best case scenario, under which the UK manages to enter into liberal trade arrangements with the EU and the rest of the world, whilst pursuing large-scale deregulation at home, Britain could be better off by 1.6% of GDP in 2030. However, a far more realistic range is between a 0.8% permanent loss to GDP in 2030 and a 0.6% permanent gain in GDP in 2030, in scenarios where Britain mixes policy approaches."
This alone should be a serious reason to consider not leaving the EU but it gets worse. Many people will know I am a Northern Tory. I moved to London recently but for 6 years I lived in Sunderland, home of Nissan, which on their Sunderland site make more cars than the entirity of Italy combined. Nissan has already said they will need to reconsider their position in the UK if we leave the EU.
Some may call this scaremongering, but they are not the only business saying the same thing. Now I seem to recall an allegation made by the SNP that the currency union for a independent Scotland would occur despite the Westminster parties pledging it would not. Then I recalled a quote from the Chancellor who was very clear that it was not a tactic it was a solid position. If he wasn't bluffing what makes us think business leaders will just as much to lose are bluffing at all?
This makes me worry for the future of my friends and family in the North East because as any student of economics can tell you, if a large business closes it does not just close that one business. It has a knock on effect for its suppliers and their suppliers and so on. A large business like Nissan closing would have a devastating impact on the region I call home. Matthew Hunt, Port of Sunderland director, was recent quoted in the Northern Echo as saying:
"As a net exporting region, the implications on the North-East of exiting Europe could be significant. It is difficult to know for certain what the impact would be, but being part of the EU surely creates a stable marketplace and good conditions for trade with businesses here. If leaving led to a fiscal disadvantage for the country, the North-East would feel the impact more than other places, as the only part of the UK with a positive balance of trade."
And he's right. We have no guarantees that we can get a level playing field in any post-EU world. We do not know the extent to which the EU would willingly embrace a partnership with a UK that just spurned them so very badly. To quote the Chancellor on the sharing of the pound: "It's like divorcees who are sharing a bank account and a credit card after they divorce," to my mind at least the odds of any such agreement being favourable to the UK are very slim given that we are burning the bridge we need to get goods over.
So there you have it. My reasons for staying in. They might not be the prettiest but they come from the heart, leaving is too great a risk to the very people I care about - the men and women of the North.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
* Please be aware this is my own position and I actively encourage people to write guest blogs for the Tory Network opposing it or agreeing with it. This is a place for free speech and debate where all views are welcome.
Second I want to take just a moment to express my respect for Grant Shapps who resigned from his government position at the weekend over the current issues in the party (which I will not discuss here but a blog post on them can be found here). I had the honour of meeting Mr. Shapps at conference this year and he was a genuinely decent guy despite this he has done the right thing by resigning given that he was the one who made the decision to endorse Road Trip. As I said I both like and respect Mr. Shapps (we were both of a similar mind in regards the... unique range of food available at conference this year and expressed a similar desire for normal food like a simple ham and cheese sandwich) and I do hope he returns to front bench politics in a timely fashion once this issue has been properly investigated.
NOW.
What you've all been waiting for: My Views on the EU.
I've done two mini-blogs on this issue. A list of three reasons to stay in the EU, followed by a list of three reasons to leave the EU. Both of these lists were presented without comment because I did not want to 'tease' my position in regards Europe until I had had a proper chance to sit and write about why I am strongly in favour of remaining in the European Union*
The European Union is a mess. It is full of legal loop holes and is very difficult to explain in simple terms which everybody can understand. However it is also one of the largest economies in the world and it also happens to be just a few dozen miles off the south east coast of Britain. We cannot ignore it, we cannot dictate terms to it and we cannot expect they will give us preferential treatment if we leave the EU. This was acknowledged by the Open Europe Report I cited on friday in the three reasons to leave mini-blog when they stated very clearly that:
"UK GDP could be 2.2% lower in 2030 if Britain leaves the EU and fails to strike a deal with the EU or reverts into protectionism. In a best case scenario, under which the UK manages to enter into liberal trade arrangements with the EU and the rest of the world, whilst pursuing large-scale deregulation at home, Britain could be better off by 1.6% of GDP in 2030. However, a far more realistic range is between a 0.8% permanent loss to GDP in 2030 and a 0.6% permanent gain in GDP in 2030, in scenarios where Britain mixes policy approaches."
This alone should be a serious reason to consider not leaving the EU but it gets worse. Many people will know I am a Northern Tory. I moved to London recently but for 6 years I lived in Sunderland, home of Nissan, which on their Sunderland site make more cars than the entirity of Italy combined. Nissan has already said they will need to reconsider their position in the UK if we leave the EU.
Some may call this scaremongering, but they are not the only business saying the same thing. Now I seem to recall an allegation made by the SNP that the currency union for a independent Scotland would occur despite the Westminster parties pledging it would not. Then I recalled a quote from the Chancellor who was very clear that it was not a tactic it was a solid position. If he wasn't bluffing what makes us think business leaders will just as much to lose are bluffing at all?
This makes me worry for the future of my friends and family in the North East because as any student of economics can tell you, if a large business closes it does not just close that one business. It has a knock on effect for its suppliers and their suppliers and so on. A large business like Nissan closing would have a devastating impact on the region I call home. Matthew Hunt, Port of Sunderland director, was recent quoted in the Northern Echo as saying:
"As a net exporting region, the implications on the North-East of exiting Europe could be significant. It is difficult to know for certain what the impact would be, but being part of the EU surely creates a stable marketplace and good conditions for trade with businesses here. If leaving led to a fiscal disadvantage for the country, the North-East would feel the impact more than other places, as the only part of the UK with a positive balance of trade."
And he's right. We have no guarantees that we can get a level playing field in any post-EU world. We do not know the extent to which the EU would willingly embrace a partnership with a UK that just spurned them so very badly. To quote the Chancellor on the sharing of the pound: "It's like divorcees who are sharing a bank account and a credit card after they divorce," to my mind at least the odds of any such agreement being favourable to the UK are very slim given that we are burning the bridge we need to get goods over.
So there you have it. My reasons for staying in. They might not be the prettiest but they come from the heart, leaving is too great a risk to the very people I care about - the men and women of the North.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
* Please be aware this is my own position and I actively encourage people to write guest blogs for the Tory Network opposing it or agreeing with it. This is a place for free speech and debate where all views are welcome.
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